AIRPORT PRIVATIZATION — EVIDENCE & PERFORMANCE FRAMEWORK

Why Risk-Based Privatization Fails — And What Actually Drives Airport Success

Published: Q4 2035

This dossier examines the core assumption used in traditional airport privatization frameworks: that controlling political, contractual, market, regulatory, implementation, and post-delivery risks is the primary determinant of a successful concession. Using a performance-based lens, the study shows that this risk-centric view is incomplete and does not align with how airport boards today assess success. Privatization outcomes correlate far more with ownership structure, incentive alignment, consortium governance, regulatory capacity, and operator capability than with risk allocation alone. By leveraging globally respected references—including the NBER Working Paper 30544—and integrating insights from current ownership models such as infrastructure funds and vertically integrated operators, the study provides a clear, evidence-based alternative. It explains why airport authorities, investors, and executives need a new decision framework that links privatization to measurable outcomes: traffic growth, efficiency gains, commercial performance, and passenger experience. This dossier gives decision-makers a structured method to reposition privatization from a contractual exercise into a performance-driven strategy.

Includes:

The limits of the traditional six-risk model | Why ownership structure and incentives predict airport success | How consortium design and governance shape outcomes | Jurisdiction and regulator capacity as performance multipliers | Evidence review: What global data—including NBER 30544—actually show | A modern KPI framework linking privatization to measurable performance | Practical implications for boards, CEOs, regulators, and investors | ACI’s strategic opportunity: using member data to build a causal global benchmark |